Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Gold in 2012
Over the past year the gold price rose 11 percent overall. Over the past 30 odd years the gold price has maintained a steady increase in price, partially due to the deterioration of the value of currency but also due to the interest and eager value placed upon it by investors and banks (yes banks are now buying up gold in a frantic effort to bolster their asset value also). From 35 dollars an ounce up to over 1600 dollars is a 450 percent increase. Not many stocks can boast that sort of return.
Looking to the future, here is what various analysts have said about the future gold price.
At a recent Gold Symposium in Sydney Alf Field, using the Elliott Wave theory, predicts, "Once this present correction in gold has been completed it should [undergo] the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market…to around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections along the way."
Arnold Bock of Financial Summaries, in an article stated. "No wishful thinking here! As I see it gold is going to a parabolic top of $10,000 by 2012 for very good reasons: sovereign debt defaults, bankruptcies of “too big to fail” banks and other financial entities, currency inflation and devaluations - which will all contribute to rampant price inflation."
And in March 2011 Bock further wrote, "2012 is shaping up to be the blockbuster main event of the ongoing financial crisis. Massive amounts of new debt, vast quantities of additional digital dollars and the spark of higher interest rates will set off version 2.0 of the credit-driven financial implosion."
Taran Marwah stated, "Our target for Gold since October 2010 has been US$6000 by December 2012… thru Q2 2013... Excess money printing will cause debasing of the mighty US Dollar. In this scenario of hyperinflation, wherein the...US Dollar is collapsing, the only way to protect your wealth is holding on to 'Physical Gold'. Please start thinking on the lines of "wealth protection" and "preservation". Physical Gold is the only financial asset in the world that is not simultaneously somebody else's liability. That is the reason why we have been advising everyone since 2009 to buy 'physical Gold' [and recommending that they] store the bars outside the commercial banking system as most commercial banks in USA and Europe will be "insolvent" by December 2012. We repeat - Physical Gold is the only asset which will give "best returns" from 2009 through 2012."
Goldrunner a Fractal analyst, in his November, 2011 sets forth the basics of his technical analysis and stated, "Early this year we suggested a 50% rise in Gold to $1860 – $1,920 into mid-year. Now, we see the Gold tsunami realizing an approximate 100% rise that will crest at $3,000+ into the middle of 2012."
Bob Chapman in last Augusts International Forecaster is expecting $2,500 - $3,000. "Debt monetization will lead to ever-higher inflation...and explain the systemic problem of many nations, which have nowhere to turn to except the creation of money and credit to temporarily keep their economies going...[and] when you put it all together you get higher gold and silver prices...We would expect a move to $2,000 to $2,200, some backing and filling and a move to $2,500 to $3,000 by the end of February 2012, as we earlier predicted."
Kurtis Hemmerling, in an August 2011 article at Seeking Alpha entitled How to Play Parabolic Gold Prices With a $2,500-8,000 says, "While I put a one year price target of $2,500 - $3,000, it is difficult to know with any surety...but I think some added 'shock news' as we toy with another recession and the convoluted problems of the euro-zone, compounded by inflationary stimulus - will see the U.S. dollar-based price of gold go much higher over the next few months. My target is largely based on the recent steep climb that is getting dangerously close to setting up a parabolic price move. Fear is the catalyst, and I think resistance will be met at $2,000 based on it being a round psychological number. After some churning when it breaks that - we could see another big run between $2,500 and $3,000."
Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: of the Aden Forecast sees $2,000 - $3,000 an ounce
And not to be outdone, money manager, Peter Schiff recently stated that, "Gold could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years".
Gold in 2012 is looking good and there seems to be plenty of enthusiasm for gold and more encouragement for the gold standard so now is the time to buy gold.